14
Jul 18

Micro Seminars – Thought Provoking Market Intel

Custom, fast paced, 30-minute corporate seminars. Individually tailored to your business and presented interactively with the audience.
Drawing from Andrew’s (COO at Universal Homes) broad international experience, your team will benefit from valuable market intel delivered via a partisan and somewhat unique developer’s perspective.

 

Take this recent micro seminar presented to one of Australasia’s leading valuation and property consultancy firms.

Titled: “The Ghost of Valuation Past, Valuation Present & Valuation Future”

Within a snappy, thought provoking 30 minutes, we covered these five topics:
1. How bad can the market get? (War stories and amazing opportunities from the GFC in the United States.)
2. How do you value housing with social housing next door?
3. Is a prefab less valuable?
4. What really caused the housing crisis and what are we doing about it? (The latest market dynamics in house development)
5. Will you have a job? (Change coming with AI, computer vision and machine learning)

This micro seminar involved plenty of too and thro with the audience and not a power-point slide in sight.

 

Mark Davidson from Opteon had this to say:
“Andrew provides knowledge, experience and relevance to his audience. His presentation was well received by our team of valuers who appreciated his real-world application and market insight.”

Organise your micro seminar now. Suitable for government, corporates, not-for-profits and industry associations. Go to developmentprofit.com for details.

 

 

Cheers

Andrew Crosby


15
May 18

Show Me the Value !

An excerpt from my next book* : my take on peer reviews and value engineering.
* Book is currently under construction, due early 2019 with the working title ‘From Failure to Finish Line’.

——————————-

PEER REVIEWS

To assist with creating coordinated and quality documentation consider peer reviews. Peer reviews are undertaken by independent consultants who are not influenced by the history of the project, or the people involved, to provide an objective review. The best peer reviewers (as far as objectivity goes) are those who don’t succumb to using the peer review process as an opportunity to tout their own services. You know, to try and become your replacement consultant on the project! That’s a touch cynical but I have seen it happen.

Peer reviews may have been included in your audit during due-diligence. Albeit if you had time constraints they would have been limited to high risk issues. This time you are focussing on moving the project forward. Of course, you can peer review anything. But the objective is typically to confirm that the plans and specifications are sound and fit for purpose. Where they aren’t you should expect to be provided with alternative viable options to consider. However, look at taking it one step further and instruct peer reviewers to be on the lookout for high value opportunities as part of their advice.[1]

The type of project and where potential risk currently lies will influence what you conduct peer reviews on.

  • Consider a house and land development where civil infrastructure works or house building has yet to start. A peer review of the civil engineering and geotechnical documentation, in conjunction with the home architectural site layouts is important. Considerable construction cost escalation risk exists in ground for many sites. The review could also include examining structural foundations, retaining walls and finished floor levels to make sure it all lines up and the most cost-effective method is being utilised. The cross-over between civil engineer, structural engineer and architect can be complicated. From my experience that is a rich source of improvement – to uncover conflicts that become very expensive to fix during construction. Whether you decide to peer review the above foundation house documentation might depend on its complexity and your familiarity with the product type – i.e. a low risk might not justify a peer review.
  • For a multi-level apartment or office building, consider peer reviewing the structure (including frame/floor assemblies, piling and foundations), façade weather-tightness, fire and acoustics and potential service clashes (or opportunities to streamline services vertically).
  • On a large industrial building a peer review might be limited to the roof structure and wall assembly that is enabling wide spans and a high stud. This is something that can easily be overengineered.

 

Don’t just leave it to formal construction and engineering reviews though.  Tackling a thorough design and market assessment peer review might be worthwhile – if sales or leases are still required. Typically to do this you will engage with real estate sales or leasing agents[2] and specialist designers. You might also include the advice from a market research expert, appraiser or valuer. For example:

  • For a retail centre a design peer review may question circulation, service area and wasted space in relation to lettable area.
  • The design review on an affordable apartment project may concentrate on kitchen and bathroom layout efficiency.
  • A high-rise office design and market assessment review might take an alternative approach to analysing the spatial requirements for your markets key anchor tenants (like space per occupant for law firms and banks).

 

VALUE ENGINEERING

‘Peer reviewers’ are better at reviewing what exists than finding new opportunities. Value engineering is that next step. This is where you adjust your plans and specifications to increase profit. It may well be that the opportunity for you to take over this failed project only exists because of your expertise at value engineering.

It should really be called profit engineering.

This is an important point. All too often value engineering becomes a purely cost cutting exercise, whereby deletion becomes the default answer. Even worse, I have also seen so called value engineering, especially in the substitution of design or materials where the change has a negligible effect or increases the cost, because of some unforeseen implication. You might save on the raw material cost, but the new installation cost exceeds the benefit. Or by the time you factor in the fees for architects and engineers to change drawings and achieving a new building consent, it turns out to be never worth the effort. Also, often over looked is the negative impact a cost reduction can have on a sales or rental price. The sales price might drop more than the savings you have made.

Done well, value engineering should focus on the relative beneficial impact of a cost cutting decision on revenue (i.e. does it create more profit margin). Rarely done, is when you value engineer by adding cost to increase revenue. Positive value is achieved when the increase in revenue is higher than all the costs to get there. At some point though, if you do enough value engineering, you are effectively repositioning the project, which we discussed in the restart chapter.

There are three ways you can undertake a value engineering exercise:

  • Ad-hoc via contractor
  • Project team approach, or
  • Elemental and functional investigation.[3]

 

Building upon what you may have already uncovered in your due-diligence audits and peer reviews each approach progressively becomes more involved. Number 3 requiring more preparation and management dedication and will take longer and can cost more.

 

Ad-hoc via Contractor

The ad-hoc via contractor led approach is where you, your builder or a construction expert review the plans and specifications and mainly through experience find an element or three that can be substituted or deleted. That’s commonly about as much as you expect when you hand a contractor some plans and say we are open to all value saving opportunities. That’s because few contractors have an appreciation of the effect of any VE change on value, town planning regulation, design aesthetics and other subtleties.  So, either they offer up savings with changes that are simply not possible or desirable, or become too conservative and make an assumption that because something is shown on the plans it is required. A contractor well experienced in your product type in your product market should be much better at value engineering.[4] That is because they have already been through the value engineering hoops with other developers and their teams.

 

Project Team Approach

The project team approach is where you ask each project team member to review their own work and offer up a list of value engineering options. In consultation with your sales or leasing agent review each option for impact on sales or rental value. Immediately exclude any that make so sense from a sales or leasing point of view. For example, there may be some you can’t get away with because of pre-committed purchaser or tenant contracts. For the options that retain merit, hold a value engineering workshop (or two) with the entire project team to work through the implications of making the change. Using a quantity surveyor or professional cost estimator calculate each options’ potential savings (or costs if there is a net gain to be made by adding cost to increase revenue). This professional cost advice now puts you on a firmer footing to run the idea past the contractor for buildability and actual savings. This helps prevent the contractor brushing off perfectly sound suggestions due to ignorance or a lack of incentive to investigate the item further. The project team approach leverages the collective experience of all team members so also works better if they, each individually, have experience on similar type projects in similar markets. The downside is some will simply not be able to review their own work and come up with any bright value engineering ideas. Whether an inner reluctance through arrogance ‘all their thinking has already been done’. Or simply they have been tuned into such a precise frequency that they can’t imagine a different harmony. So, this approach ordinarily works better when you have replaced consultants and contractors, rather than kept existing ones.

 

Elemental and Functional Investigation

The third approach is just a more meticulous and methodical combination of the above. This is the elemental and functional investigation (apologies I can’t think of a catchier name). This takes more preparation and management but can yield much better profit improving results. It can also show up project team members who are not delivering their A-game as well as deficiencies in documentation.

An element is a specified item such as tile flooring, steel columns or timber decking. Whereas a function represents the required output for the built form, such as flooring, structure to hold up each floor, or even as ethereal as ‘desired private outdoor space’. Considering the function helps creatively expand the thinking of what could be changed or how to achieve the same output differently to increase profits.

Here’s my eight-point process – undertaken prior to formally tendering or lodging consent but including early contractor involvement – using a spreadsheet.[5]

1.Create a spreadsheet where each tab is associated with a different element or functional requirement that you intend to value engineer. What items you consider will depend on how far through the project you are and what can realistically be changed now. For example, you can’t change the foundations if the project is already into the wall framing stage. Similarly, you may not be able to change cedar cladding if that was a hotly debated specified item forced upon the project at town planning consent stage. You can approach each project team member to provide a list of their ‘items for consideration’. Note though that some will be bias or reluctant on what they provide. I have found nothing is better than going through the plans, specifications, the quantity surveyors elemental cost analysis and the contractors sub-trade list to extract these items yourself. For each item include the relevant plans and specifications, indicative pictures (or actuals if you are looking at a renovation) and anything else that can add to a critical analysis discussion. Include the current cost and if you already have an idea of where your budget needs to be, your target cost. Cost is easier to identify for a single element than for a function – but you should still try to identify the relevant cost parameters that make up a function. If there is a lot of documentation for an element or functional output, then just include a summary on the spreadsheet tab and a reference link to full documentation.

 

2. To focus the analysis, arrange the items (tabs on your spreadsheet) in a logical order. The best (time versus impact) approach is to order what are likely to be the big-ticket cost versus revenue items as top priority and then work your way down the value chain. Spend more time on the big savings for little revenue impact, and less time where savings are likely to be smaller. For example, on an office building you might start with foundations, car parking, super structure and curtain wall glazing and then move onto vertical circulation, heating and air-conditioning before looking at internal partitions, suspended ceilings, bathrooms and common area finishes. An alternative ordering (eliminating assumptions on what could be the most profitable VE before you do the analysis) would be to simply start at the physical bottom and work your way up and out generally in accordance with a construction programme. For example, on a house development start with site preparation, demolition, earthworks, services and then foundations, structure, roofing, cladding, windows to flooring, kitchens, bathrooms, finishes and fittings.For an old apartment building with historic protection that we were about to comprehensively renovate our priority order was based twofold. One, what items had no effect on the historical preservation, and therefore we could VE to our hearts content. That list was then prioritised by the quantum of renovation cost, looking at big ticket items first. An example was ‘weatherproofing the external walkways’. And two, what items could trigger a ‘no’ from the historic preservation trust if they were changed. That list was prioritised by the limitations of possible value engineering changes. If few possible changes then little point discussing it and it fell to the bottom of the priority list. Keeping the façade on one street frontage exactly as it was built was an example here where there was no point trying to value engineer.

 

3. Distribute the spreadsheet to the team members you wish to involve in the VE exercise. You might need to a kick off meeting at this point to get buy-in from whom you want involved. Expectations around how much time to be spent, costs incurred and deadlines for feedback should be set at the outset. On the spreadsheet include a summary tab that lists each item as well a distribution list for that item. Not all team members will be able to contribute to every item, nor should you waste time doing so. There is no point for example involving the interior designer on foundations or a steel fabricator on floor finishes. The architect, cost estimator and/or contractor do need to be involved in each item. For some items involving key subcontractors and potential suppliers may be beneficial. Within each item tab, add the distribution list with a space for their review comments.

 

4. Have each team member analyse their relevant items. This next step is probably the most powerful part of the VE process. To promote creative and critical review, include these question prompts:

  • Reprice: Is this a competitive market accurate cost estimate?[6]
  • Deletion: Do we need this item?
  • Addition: What can we add to make it better?
  • Substitution: What else could do the same job?
  • Simplification: Is this (system/installation) overly complex to achieve the intended result?
  • Systemisation: Is there a proprietary system available?
  • Specification: Is this a higher quality than is required? What if we decrease / increase the quality? Can we provide more / less functionality? What if take a longer/shorter lifecycle view?
  • Resource: Can we share, group or combine this function?


Let’s use the function “kitchen” in a multi-unit retirement development to illustrate.

  • Reprice: Is our subcontractor used to pricing this volume?
  • Deletion: Remove cabinetry and turn a U shape into a L.
  • Addition: Add an island
  • Substitution: Swap benchtop granite with engineered stone.
  • Simplification: Why not a single unit mini kitchen.
  • Systemisation: Build the walls to fit a flat-pack kitchen.
  • Specification: Upgrade appliances. Downgrade door handles.
  • Resource: Kitchen to be shared between two units.

If we then focus on the element ‘kitchen bench’.

  • Reprice: Order very early at discount.
  • Deletion: Decrease the depth of kitchen bench.
  • Addition: Add kitchen bench material to back-splash.
  • Substitution: Replace marble with porcelain.
  • Simplification: Create a one piece top with sink out of same material.
  • Systemisation: Make each benchtop exactly the same size in accordance with least wastage from sheet sizes.
  • Specification: Downgrade from Italian marble to Indian marble.
  • Resource: Use the same supplier and material for kitchen benchtops and bathroom vanity tops.

 

The analysis and individual ideas should be summarised in the spreadsheet tab and all supporting documentation sent through (and referenced on the spreadsheet tab).

 

5. Consolidate all the replies into a single master spreadsheet, with consistent formatting. Some items will have few comments or none (i.e.no one could figure out any VE to improve upon), whilst others will attract many. This is the time you follow up and be somewhat persistent to extract VE ideas. You want to make sure everyone has given it their best attention.

 

6. Convene a value engineering workshop. Ask all team members to bring any further supporting evidence to their alternatives and ideas. At this workshop systematically go through each potential alternative/idea addressing the implications on.

  • Revenue
  • Marketing and buyer/tenant appeal
  • Construction cost
  • Redesign cost, time and coordination
  • Linkages to other items
  • Contracts
  • Timetable and lead times
  • Consenting risk 

Like most brainstorming sessions it is important not to dismiss ideas too quickly, especially if project team members are not aware of the full picture. Firstly, you want to encourage ideas and not have people hold back out of worry of how it will be received. Secondly, what is a stupid idea to one person might be a fantastic idea to another and vice versa. For example, the structural engineer might propose to add columns to support a protruding cantilevered wing for a coastal hotel project – she is so confident this VE will save hundreds of thousands of dollars and has no idea why no one else thought about it. But the architect and developer, given years of painful planning consent hearings know all too well that the only reason this project exists with so many rooms and a half chance of being profitable is because of the cantilever. They have sold the community on the cantilever being an architectural ecological metaphor to a local and almost extinct seabird soaring into the air…(believe me it can get worse than that!). Thirdly, if you do dismiss an idea whether by group consensus, a vote (or because it really is stupid) at least provide a well-reasoned argument to support your position, so the promoter of that idea at least understands why and won’t get despondent.

 

7. Many ideas will prompt questions, bring issues to light and require further research and investigation that cannot be resolved at the workshop. Unless your team are going to delve deeper without charging you (and in quick time), you may want to limit further analysis to those alternatives and ideas that look the most promising (profitable). Once again focus on the big savings first. However, enough small savings can start to add up. You will need make a judgement call on how far to let the team have another go before further investigation becomes counterproductive.Arrange the results of your workshop into a summary matrix. On this assign a status in relation to how knowledgeable you are with the potential cost versus its benefit and what action to take next. Here’s an example summary matrix for two ideas gleaned from a VE workshop for an apartment complex project:

 

8. Finally, direct the team to further investigation or work towards implementing the more profitable idea.

 

With a balance between being methodical, realistic and creative that’s how we value engineer!

————

Cheers

Andrew Crosby

twobooksTableSmall

 

 

 

 

 

 

Real estate development books now available via Amazon or direct from publisher in New Zealand. Contact publishing@aenspire.com for special rates. Go to www.developmentprofit.com to view publications available.

 

Notes:

[1] Formal peer reviews by engineers are often regulated by their industry associations, so there may be limitations on how far a peer review is able (or willing) to critique the work of another.

[2] By their nature, every real estate sales and leasing agent is bias, and would only bother looking at your project in they thought they have a chance of getting the listing. So the term peer review is used loosely in this context.

[3] Value engineering described by others, worth the read if you want to focus on this:

https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Value_engineering_in_building_design_and_construction

https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ve/veproc.cfm

https://www.wbdg.org/resources/value-engineering

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/property-development-series-5-detailed-design-value-simon-lee

http://www.buildings.com/buzz/buildings-buzz/entryid/81/for-a-successful-retail-project-value-engineering-is-critical-

http://www.academia.edu/26691474/The_Methodology_of_Using_Value_Engineering_in_Construction_Projects_Management

[4] As well as a much less risky prospect to build your project.

[5] This could be a shared spreadsheet, a word processing document, a physical scrapbook or a fancy purpose built online real-time collaborative forum and mark-up tool. In my case a spreadsheet works well enough – although I am tempted to build the latter. I believe the extra admin compiling responses actually forces you to consider them more in depth. Realtime review can also invite off the cuff comments rather than well-reasoned advice with evidential workings.

[6] Value engineering is not supposed to be about renegotiating supplier contracts to extract a better price for the same product. Of course, the very exercise of looking at alternatives that results finding a cheaper substitute, may increase your negotiating argument with an existing supplier.


18
Mar 18

Around the Block…Chain

I finally relented and decided to take a look at the application of blockchain technology to the real estate industry. If you hadn’t already heard blockchain is the technology behind Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies. You know, that volatile alternative to money that goes from USD$10 to $20,000 in about 5 years, back down to $8,000 in 3 weeks and who knows where in the next 24 hours.

Blockchain is really a simple concept.  A whole lot of complicated computer terminology does make it difficult to explain though. And there is a real risk that I mess it up completely without stealing an explanation verbatim. So here is one.

“Blockchain is a term used for an encrypted software technology that manages information, specifically the records of transactions. What makes blockchain a transformative concept is that the ledger is distributed, which means that every computer connected to the network has a complete or partial copy of the ledger. Furthermore, the ledger is constantly being updated through the efforts of multiple competing parties (“miners”) working through an established consensus system. It is called blockchain because each ledger update adds a block of data to the previous block, creating an immutable and auditable chain of all transactions that have occurred. Essentially, blockchain is nothing more than a distributed database. However, the result of organizing a ledger system in a distributed manner reveals blockchain’s true innovation: removing the need for a central authority.”[1]

The how it all works is not really that important to our discussion. We will leave that to the teenage computer hackers, mining and hashing their tokens in Reykjavík. What is important, or at least what I am interested in, are the potential applications in real estate.

How can blockchain make real estate (acquisition / development / management / construction / marketing / whatever) more profitable?

Well there are at least five theoretical applications being actively and practically pursued:

  1. Buying and selling real estate with cryptocurrencies.
  2. Secure, transparent titles
  3. Universal property reference
  4. Property data
  5. Asset fractionalisation, smart contracts and smart property

1. Buying and selling real estate with cryptocurrencies.
Well this is a pretty obvious application. Buy a building with Bitcoin. Sell your house and receive some Ethereum. Lease your next office in Ripple.[2]
However, real estate values fluctuate a hang of a lot slower than these digital dollars so early adopters be warned. Your bitcoin might buy one house 200m2 house on a beachfront today and only a barn in the middle of nowhere tomorrow. Using a cryptocurrency as a down deposit might also get a little tricky with your bank since they can’t track where the money came from.[3]

2. Secure, transparent Title
To enable fast real estate transactions you need search access to trusted digital Title information. This is not a biggy in NZ as we probably have some of the cleanest titles of any country in the world, and whilst the contents are not 100% digitized yet they are scanned and easily retrieved within minutes from a corruption free government entity. However, in emerging countries this data sits all over the place and often Titles are plagued by disputes and fraud. Even in the U.S of A they have the concept of Title insurance. Companies like Ubitquity and Propy are taking on this challenge.

3 & 4 Universal property references and property data. 
There are many transactions in real estate and they all involve lots of information about the real estate being transacted (size, bedrooms, gps etc) and the details of the transaction itself (date, dollars, from who to who). All this information is ripe to be recorded in a distributed blockchain. At the moment many companies are vying to control the information, with clones turning up every other day. It used to cost you money to find sales data in New Zealand but that is being opened up as companies now vie for a bigger (but I am not sure exactly what) prize. For example, think about the additional information you can now find about homes.co.nz, realestate.co.nz and trademe.co.nz when looking to buy or sell a house.

Having this information truly opensource with consistent terminology and definitions and every new transaction continually updating the collective market knowledge seems like a good idea to me.

Now whilst the four points above seem like good ideas and might make things a little easier and faster, nothing really jumps out to me as a big potential profit center. The guys/gals dealing in big data and the ability to mine it to advertise to and influence punters probably disagree. But all I can see happening is everyone getting access to more and more accurate data that is free. So a lot of public good, not sure about private profit.

That takes us to what I find is the most exciting potential application of block chain technology to real estate.

5. Asset fractionalisation, smart contracts and smart property.
Let’s start backwards.

As far as blockchain is concerned a smart property is a property that has smart contracts in place.

A smart contract is an transaction/agreement where every clause and condition is digitized. Through the use of algorithms and a little bit of logical artificial intelligence the transaction can be looked at in various ways based on the wording in every clause. For example, on its impact on property cashflow. Think of the term in a commercial lease agreeing to a rent rise at CPI in 3 years time. The algorithms figure out what to do in three years time and do the cashflow itself, find what CPI is (from another database), adjust the financial records and start automatically deducting the increase every month from the tenants bank account. The landlord, bank and tenant all operate via the blockchain and all information is open and transparently available within the blockchain for data aggregation (but the individual terms are still commercially secure) .

With enough (every) property using smart contracts then the AI can get a lot more serious. It is conceivable enough data can be collected and processed to estimate market rents for a particular property and automatically revise the rental rate on rent review date without both sides getting a valuer and lawyers to argue the point. That would save some money.

Then things get interesting. With complete digitization – and a secure transparent blockchain distribution of asset information –   transaction and administration costs (like from a bank, lawyer, accountant) are reduced or eliminated. Throw in AI assessing risks and opportunities then this opens up what I call Asset Fractionalisation (the breakdown of equity or debt investments into micro but still distributable amounts).

Asset fractionalisation enables new investments that previously would have been too cumbersome and costly to implement and manage. One practical example applicable to housing:

Fractionalise the equity in your home. So by the click of the button you can make say 20% of the equity in your home available to other investors to bid on (or it might be at a set price). They could buy 19% or 0.5%. Blockchain data on market values gives real time value estimates of that fraction  – so it goes up and down a little like shares. Any debt/security owning to banks or other sources (crowdfunding for example) is  included in the equation, as are banks transactions part of the same blockchain. So is all localised data that affects the value of this house (cost/value of an extension, new home blocking the view across the road etc) as well as credit worthiness of the home owner, and rents they receive and expenses incurred. Net rents received could also be automatically distributed as micro dividends to equity holders.

This turns an illiquid asset into a liquid one with incredibly low transaction costs. This is a not like a fractional timeshare investment – whose transaction and marketing costs overinflate the price of the property in the first place. Blockchain makes it all super efficient.

Here’s a thought; the government could use this to enable affordable housing share equity schemes, painlessly.

Yes I am conveniently forgetting all the complications I am sure experts will like to remind me about, and I know my grasp is loose at best on the whole blockchain theory and reality. However, it is one to watch closely, because hidden in all the computer geek mumbo jumbo is some real disruption coming soon – and I think this could have a bigger impact than drones or flying cars!

Cheers

Andrew Crosby

twobooksTableSmall

 

 

 

 

 

 

Real estate development books now available via Amazon or direct from publisher in New Zealand. Contact publishing@aenspire.com for special rates. Go to www.developmentprofit.com to view publications available.

References:

[1]https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesrealestatecouncil/2018/01/12/three-ways-blockchain-could-transform-real-estate-in-2018/2/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesrealestatecouncil/2018/01/12/blockchain-and-real-estate-humanitarianism-or-capitalism

[2] https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/911636/cryptocurrency-top-10-2018-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-stellar-litecoin-market-cap

[3] https://www.ft.com/content/40c64992-f606-11e7-88f7-5465a6ce1a00

https://www.ibrea.network/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency

http://dci.mit.edu/assets/papers/spielman_thesis.pdf

https://www.inc.com/sonya-mann/real-estate-blockchain.html

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/financial-services/us-fsi-rec-blockchain-in-commercial-real-estate.pdf

https://dev.to/damcosset/blockchain-what-is-mining-2eod


18
Feb 18

Property development decision making – gut feel, winging it and do you have a backup plan?

In my latest book currently under penmanship I am writing the part that deals with decision making under uncertainty – pretty much the day to day life for any real estate developer! Along with some of the more academic approaches, like scenario analysis, expected monetary value and stress testing,  I include what you would not normally find in any text: ‘gut feel’, ‘winging it’ and ‘back up options’. That’s because this is often the reality! Here’s the draft text so far…

 

Excerpt from upcoming publication, due for release early 2019.

Gut Feel

You might not find this heading in any academic publication, but often real estate development decisions are made on gut feel. So what is gut feel?[1] Well on the surface it’s your first or strongest instinct about what is best to do when presented with a decision. Geil Browning, Founder and CEO, Emergenetics International, tells us that “There is no such thing as a purely rational decision. The brain uses a combination of logic and emotion when making decisions of any kind.”[2] That emotion is your intuition and it is the semi-scientific driver behind what people commonly refer to as their gut feeling.

One’s intuition develops over time and is guided by learning, culture, ethics, technical knowledge, empathy, risk tolerance and most importantly experience – especially the success or failure they have already had in similar situations. A gut feel from an experienced practitioner could be more accurate than any detailed research and analysis, given the myriad of assumptions that are required in property development decisions. But, the gut feel of a novice is more likely to reflect underlying opinions influenced by a relatively myopic experience bank.[3]

So when someone tells me they have made a gut decision, I am going to be heavily persuaded if they are a successful industry leader and have been there and done that multiple times. For anyone else, show me the data and convince me of your reasoning please!

 

Winging It

Did he really put this in a book? How can anyone take this author seriously? Real estate development is a risky business venture. Taking over a project that has already failed is arguably even riskier. The reality is although we may like to think we have fully analysed a situation, luck[4] will play a part. You can help make your own luck by avoiding stupid mistakes and learning as much you can from knowledgeable others before acting. But nothing beats learning from experience. At the end of the day, when confronted by a decision in a new situation or under unique circumstances where you have no experience you will be to some degree winging it.  So acknowledge that this is the case.

Once you accept that your pending decision is based on taking a risk with the outcome dependent at least partially on hope (i.e. ‘winging it’) you can still apply a modicum of common sense. For these types of decisions at least ask yourself – and analyse – “what’s the worst that can happen?”. By definition there is no limit to how bad something can get so it has to be thought of somewhat pragmatically. If that worst case outcome is financial ruin, well now you know. Then balance that with the equivalent best case scenario and your internal risk tolerance gauge will do the rest to guide your decision. Just remember, this project has already failed once, probably caused by a lot of unnecessary winging it in the first place.

You can also ask yourself, if it does all go downhill, “what are my backup options?”

 

Backup Options

To me real estate development is so exciting precisely because there are often so many options. On the same piece of urban residential land you could build a big house, three terrace homes or ten apartments[5]. In the CBD you could build an office tower, a hotel, a condo complex, a shopping center or all four combined!

The goal for any property development project is to maximise profit. That means finding and gaining approval for the highest and best use for the land. Having some backup options analysed and planned for just in case that highest and best use does not prove so might be a good idea. The higher the risk the better the idea! They may not be as financially attractive on paper, but could save an own goal in a deteriorating situation. If you have done your due-diligence thoroughly enough when looking to take on this failed project you will already have explored many of these potential backup options.

You might be the kind of person who says they have two plans for the project: “Plan A and Plan B: refer to plan A” to build motivation and focus in the troops. Yet if its other people’s money you should have thought about, and preferably planned for in advance at least one backup option.

Footnotes:

[1] There is a growing body of research that delves into extracting the science behind ones ‘gut feel’. Here are some articles to get you started:

http://www.medicaldaily.com/your-gut-feeling-way-more-just-feeling-science-intuition-325338

https://www.livescience.com/54825-scientists-measure-intuition.html

[2] https://www.inc.com/geil-browning/go-with-your-gut-trusting-your-intuition.html

[3] Of course this book can help increase the indirect experience bank!

[4] In this context ‘good luck’ can be defined as the convolution of external and uncontrollable factors that conspire to positively improve the results from this decision.

[5] If zoning permits! – of course you always have the option to challenge the zoning.

 

Cheers

Andrew Crosby

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Real estate development books now available via Amazon or direct from publisher in New Zealand. Contact publishing@aenspire.com for special rates. Go to www.developmentprofit.com to view publications available.


03
Feb 18

Now a selling author…

Well, I am now a selling author. I just logged on to order a bunch of the books for New Zealand distribution and found I have actual sales via Amazon. My wife says I am a tin-ass.

www.developmentprofit.com 

BTW. If you are in NZ and want to order copies, email me publishing@aenspire.com for special rates.

Cheers

Andrew Crosby

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